US Open Champion Serena Williams is the hot favourite to win the WTA Championships in Istanbul and the American is unlikely to disappoint.
I wrote before the US Open on how far Serena Williams was ahead of the rest of the WTA and she proved it by winning at Flushing Meadows, making it two major titles and two Olympic gold medals over a very successful summer for the 31-year-old, who is disproving the myth that female tennis players are finished by 30.
There were a few nervous moments in the final of the US Open, however, with Victoria Azarenka taking a 5-3 lead in the final set and the Belarusian really should have won the match. Such is the will of Serena though that she straightened up and won the next four games to seal the title.
It is the doubt caused by that match that sees Serena as big as 6/4 with
Coral to win the upcoming WTA Championships, which start on Tuesday. She was odds-on ahead of the US Open and holds a 10-1 win to loss record against Azarenka but the world number one's titles in Beijing and Linz have made her a viable contender, hence a best price of 9/4 with
Betfred.
However, in that New York final the only thing that kept Azarenka close was Serena's serve. She seemed determined to either hit an ace or miss and she missed often enough to keep things interesting. Azarenka barely hit any winner while her opponent made unforced error after unforced error and in that situation you have to trust that the dominating player will pull themselves together, as Williams did.
It should be the case again in Istanbul with the two set to dominate the eight woman field. Maria Sharapova (8/1,
Coral) has gone off the boil since winning the French Open and she can't beat Azarenka, having lost four of their last five meetings. The Russian has also lost each of her last eight matches with Serena and so one would imagine she will not get beyond the semi final stage, after playing one of the two Red Group powerhouses.
None of the other contenders even really warrant discussion. Petra Kvitova (10/1,
Paddy Power) has lost recently to Petra Martic, Carla Suarez-Navarro and Marion Bartoli, while Li Na (27/1,
Bwin) can't serve after changing her technique. Agnieszka Radwanska (25/1,
Boylesports) is another who can't beat either Azarenka (lost 10 of the last 11) or Serena (lost all three meetings) and a long season is catching up with the fourth seed. Angelique Kerber (34/1,
Bwin) and Sara Errani (120/1,
Bwin), meanwhile, are just happy to be here.
So, ultimately it comes down to Serena v Azarenka. One would expect the latter to be around 9/4 when they meet (she was 7/2 to win the US Open final) and so there is no value in her price but Serena will not be 6/4 if they face off in Sunday's final and that maker her a must bet at the moment.
Recommendation
Win Market - Serena Williams (6/4,
Coral)
