Group B Match Preview: Roger Federer vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Saturday marks the final day of round robin action at this year’s ATP World Tour Finals. Whereas all four members of Group A still had a shot of making the semi-finals when they took to the court on Friday, the outcome of Group B is at least partially known before a ball is even struck.
That is due to a certain Roger Federer, who is the only player in the competition to have won his first two matches in straight sets. Following his 14th consecutive win against David Ferrer on Thursday, the world number two secured his spot in the last four without having to rely on the result of the Ferrer-Tipsarevic match.
In spite of the Swiss having already booked his progression to the latter stages, his clash against Juan Martin Del Potro is far from meaningless. A win for Del Potro, regardless of the scoreline, will secure the Argentine’s passage to the semi-finals. If he wins in three sets, he has a chance of finishing top of Group B if Tipsarevic beats Ferrer. If Del Potro manages to defeat the Swiss in straight sets, he will definitely lead the group, and therefore play the second-ranked player from Group A in the semi-finals.
The mathematical permutations have encouraged some fans to speculate on how much effort Federer will put into his contest with Del Potro, the idea being that, if he knows he would face either Murray or Djokovic as the winner of Group B, he will have an incentive to lose this match. But it is hard to imagine that a sportsman of Federer’s calibre would wish for anything other than a commanding victory, especially as Del Potro represents his biggest test in the tournament so far.
The pair’s most recent meeting was a high-quality affair in the final of Basel, Federer’s home tournament. On that occasion, Del Potro held his nerve to edge the Swiss in a final set tie-break and pick up his fourth title of the year. At the London Olympics this summer, their semi-final clash was one of the matches of the year, a four-and-a-half hour marathon that Federer won 19-17 in the third set.
While recent encounters have been knife-edge close, a telling statistic is that Federer leads the head-to-head 13-3. Although Del Potro performs well on the biggest stages, and beat Federer at both the US Open and World Tour Finals in 2009, the Wimbledon champion reads his serve well and moves better around the court.
The stakes are higher for the sixth seed in this match, however, and he will be determined to affirm his comeback from wrist injury with a strong finish to his season. Del Potro has a real chance of scoring an upset, especially if Federer continues to struggles with his serve. Achieving a first serve percentage of just 52% in his previous matches this week, the Swiss will be vulnerable if Del Potro returns effectively and asserts himself in rallies.
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