Spartak Moscow desperately need a win to keep their qualification hopes alive in Group G but a weak defence will make it very difficult for the Russians to beat Benfica in the Luzhniki Stadium.
Spartak Moscow are one of eight teams in this season's UEFA Champions League who are yet to pick up a point after defeats to both Barcelona and Celtic in their opening two matches. The former, in the Camp Nou, was expected but the latter was a major blow to Unai Emery's side and leaves them in a precarious position in Group G.
If the Russians fail to win against Benfica on Tuesday then they are likely to face a mammoth task to even finish third in the group, never mind qualify for the next phase of the competition. It is 15/8 at
Bet Victor that Spartak do beat the Portuguese although that is a price that is very difficult to back with any confidence.
Home advantage may be with Spartak, and it is true that they are much stronger in the Luzhniki Stadium than when on the road, but an ability to defend is certainly not. Throwing away a 2-1 lead against Barcelona is one thing but to do the same against Celtic is quite another matter, with Gary Hooper and Georgios Samaras hardly Lionel Messi and David Villa.
No team in this season's Champions League has conceded more goals than Spartak Moscow and for that reason Benfica must be considered favourites on Tuesday evening. Oscar Cardozo, who is 11/2 at
Paddy Power to open the scoring, and Lima (17/2,
Paddy Power) will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet, particularly after drawing blanks against both Celtic and Barcelona.
However, the likely sub zero temperatures may play a part in the game and don't augur well for a bet on the visitors, at 17/10 with
Blue Square. A better option is, instead, to simply play safe and stick with the goals market. Benfica may not yet have found the back of the net but they were unlucky in both of their opening two matches and will surely not draw a blank for a third successive fixture. Spartak, by contrast are adept at scoring but their defence is so porous that they are always liable to concede. Over 2.5 goals at 9/10 with
bet365 would be the obvious play but instead take the slightly shorter 4/5 with
Stan James that both teams score, as it guards against a 1-1 draw, which is far more likely that a 3-0 win for either side.
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